[2022-06-01] The Economist - 抢工作啊
![]() CHINA / UNEMPLOYMENT
Storming the fortress
HONG KONG
Faced with a grim job market, many youngsters would rather not enter it中国/失业
攻城拔寨
香港
面对严峻的就业市场，很多年轻人都不愿进入MARRIAGE, ACCORDING to a French proverb, is like a fortress besieged. Those outside want to get in; those inside want to get out. That thought, immortalised in the title of a novel by Qian Zhongshu from 1947, has more recently been applied to China’s graduate schools. At the end of last year, a record 4.6m people tried to storm these fortresses by taking the postgraduate admissions exam, an increase of over 21% from the previous year.用一句法国谚语来说，婚姻就像一座被围困的堡垒。 外面的人想进去； 里面的人想出去。 这种思想在钱钟书 1947 年的小说标题中永垂不朽，最近被应用于中国的研究生院。 去年底，有创纪录的 460 万人试图通过研究生入学考试来攻打这些堡垒，比上年增长了 21% 以上。Some of these test-takers may have an abiding thirst for knowledge. But more than a few are probably keen to delay their entry into China’s labour market. The urban unemployment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 averaged over 14% last year. In April it rose to 18.2%, its highest level since the survey began in 2018 (see chart on next page). Earlier this month Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, described the employment situation in China as “complex and grim”. One of his potential successors, Hu Chunhua, identified college graduates as a group of key concern.其中一些应试者可能对知识有着持久的渴望。 但可能有不少人热衷于推迟进入中国劳动力市场。 去年，城镇 16 至 24 岁年轻人的平均失业率超过 14%。 4 月，这一比例升至 18.2%，为 2018 年调查开始以来的最高水平（见下页图表）。 本月早些时候，中国总理李克强将中国的就业形势描述为“复杂而严峻”。 他的潜在继任者之一胡春华将大学毕业生视为一个关键问题。![]() This group will be unusually big this year: 10.8m, about 18% more than in 2021. Less than half of those wanting to start work after they graduate have already received a job offer, according to a survey last month by Zhaopin, a recruitment firm. That compares with over 60% at this time last year. They have also settled for lower pay. Their average monthly salary was about 6,500 yuan ($970), compared with almost 7,400 last year.今年这一群体将异常庞大：1080 万，比 2021 年增加约 18%。根据智联招聘上个月的一项调查，希望毕业后开始工作的人中，只有不到一半的人已经收到了工作机会。 公司。 相比之下，去年这个时候这一比例超过 60%。 他们还接受了较低的工资。 他们的平均月薪约为 6,500 元人民币（970 美元），而去年则接近 7,400 元。Their plight is easy to explain. The increased supply of university-leavers has met faltering demand. The economy is shrinking thanks to China’s strict “zero-covid” policy, which has locked down some of the best-educated parts of the country, such as Shanghai and areas of Beijing. China’s services sector, which employs many college graduates, contracted by over 6% in April, compared with the previous year.他们的困境很容易解释。 大学毕业生供应的增加满足了不断增长的需求。 由于中国严格的“清零”政策，经济正在萎缩，该政策已经封锁了该国一些受教育程度最高的地区，例如上海和北京地区。 与去年同期相比，雇用许多大学毕业生的中国服务业在 4 月份收缩了 6% 以上。Even before China’s covid lockdowns, its regulatory crackdowns had inhibited demand for college graduates. The government has imposed fines, limits and new obligations on China’s technology companies. For example, a nine-month freeze on new licences for video games damaged Tencent, China’s most valuable private firm. It is scheduling lay-offs. “Winter is coming,” says the company’s chief, Pony Ma, according to Caixin, a magazine.甚至在中国实施武汉肺炎疫情封锁之前，其监管打击已经抑制了对大学毕业生的需求。 政府对中国的科技公司实施了罚款、限制和新的义务。 例如，视频游戏的新许可证冻结九个月，损害了中国最有价值的私营公司腾讯。 它正在安排裁员。 据《财新》杂志报道，公司总裁马化腾说：“冬天来了。”A bleak season has already arrived for China’s edtech firms. Under what is known as the “double-reduction policy”, the government has tried to cut the burden of homework and private tutoring on children and their parents. Many of the 4.6m people competing to enter graduate school to consume more education might once have joined an edtech firm producing it. In this way a policy to lighten the burden of education on the young has extended the education of the slightly less young.中国教育科技公司的惨淡季节已经到来。 在所谓的“双减政策”下，政府试图减轻孩子及其父母的家庭作业和家教负担。 在 460 万竞相进入研究生院以接受更多教育的人中，有许多人可能曾经加入了一家生产它的教育科技公司。 通过这种方式，减轻年轻人教育负担的政策扩大了稍微少一点的年轻人的教育。When job prospects turn precarious, job aspirations turn conservative. Collegeleavers now crave stable jobs over dynamic ones. State-owned enterprises are their first choice, preferred by 44%, according to Zhaopin. Private enterprises lost popularity. Young people also seem keen to join the civil service. They have displayed a similar enthusiasm for the civil-service entrance exam (or kaogong) as they have shown for the postgraduate test. There were 46 civilservice test-takers per opening in the most recent exam, according to the government. Luo Zhiheng, an economist at Yuekuai Securities, describes the rush to take the test as “kaogong fever”. He contrasts it with the confidence with which civil servants quit their safe, dry jobs in the 1990s to dive “into the sea” of private employment.当工作前景变得不稳定时，工作愿望就会变得保守。 大学毕业生现在更渴望稳定的工作，而不是动态的工作。 智联招聘的数据显示，国有企业是他们的首选，44% 的人更喜欢国有企业。 民营企业失去人气。 年轻人似乎也热衷于加入公务员队伍。 他们对公务员考试（或考工）表现出的热情与他们对研究生考试的热情相似。 据政府称，在最近一次考试中，每个空缺的公务员应试者为 46 人。 越快证券经济学家罗志恒将这种急于考试的行为描述为“考工热”。 他将其与 1990 年代公务员辞去安全、枯燥的工作以跳入私人就业“大海”的信心进行了对比。China’s restrictions on travel, and its success last year in containing covid, persuaded many young Chinese who had been studying abroad to come home. The number returning may have exceeded 1m, according to the State Information Centre, a government think-tank, adding to the pressure on the labour market. China’s draconian lockdowns this year may cause some to regret their choice.中国对旅行的限制，以及去年在遏制疫情方面取得的成功，说服了许多在国外留学的中国年轻人回国。 根据政府智库国家信息中心的数据，返回的人数可能已超过 100 万，这增加了劳动力市场的压力。 中国今年的严厉封锁可能会让一些人后悔他们的选择。The hapless protagonist of Qian’s novel also returns to China at a difficult juncture in its history, after a spell studying in Europe. In this tale, his foreign education is not much of an asset. After finding work at a Shanghai newspaper, he confesses to his appalled parents that his wife, who works at a factory, earns twice as much as he does. The fortress of his marriage, heavily besieged, swiftly crumbles. ■钱的小说中倒霉的主人公也在欧洲留学一段时间后，在中国历史上的一个艰难关头回到了中国。 在这个故事中，他的外国教育并不是什么资产。 在上海一家报纸找到工作后，他向震惊的父母坦白说，在工厂工作的妻子的收入是他的两倍。 他的婚姻堡垒，被重重围困，迅速崩溃。 ■![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。
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