[2022-07-29] Wapo - 拜登：“习主席，求您切息雷霆之怒，休发虎狼之威”
![]() China’s Xi issues warning to Biden amid Taiwan tension
Fifth call between leaders comes as China warns that relations cannot improve if Nancy Pelosi makes trip to Taiwan
By Christian Shepherd, Ellen Nakashima and Cate Cadell
Updated July 28, 2022 at 4:10 p.m. EDT|Published July 28, 2022 at 3:29 a.m. EDT
在台湾局势紧张之际，中国希望向拜登发出警告
领导人第五次通话之际，中国警告称，如果南希佩洛西访问台湾，两国关系将无法改善
作者：Christian Shepherd、Ellen Nakashima 和 Cate Cadell
2022 年 7 月 28 日下午 4:10 更新 美国东部时间|美国东部时间 2022 年 7 月 28 日凌晨 3:29 发布
TAIPEI, Taiwan — President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke by phone Thursday morning, and Chinese officials said Xi issued a sharp warning over what it perceives to be provocative Americans actions on Taiwan, including a potential visit to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
台湾台北——周四上午，拜登总统和中国领导人希望通电话，中国官员表示，希望就美国在台湾的挑衅行为发出了严厉警告，其中包括众议院议长南希·佩洛西 (Nancy Pelosi) 可能访问该岛 .
The call, lasting a little over two hours, came at a time of heightened tensions over China’s increasingly aggressive encounters with the United States and its partner militaries in the Indo-Pacific and Biden’s seemingly off-the-cuff assertions that the United States would defend Taiwan militarily. (The White House has walked back those comments.)
这次通话持续了两个多小时，当时正值中国与美国及其在印太地区的伙伴军队日益咄咄逼人的交锋，以及拜登看似即兴断言在台海紧张局势加剧之际美国将捍卫台湾。 （白宫已经收回了这些评论。）
These flaring disputes have joined long-simmering differences over trade, technology, security and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the tensions reached new heights in recent weeks over a possible visit to Taiwan by Pelosi (D-Calif.).
在贸易、技术、安全和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰等问题上，这些激烈的争端已经加剧了长期存在的分歧，最近几周，由于佩洛西（D-Calif.）可能访问台湾，紧张局势达到了新的高度。
China’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement after the call that was littered with critiques of the U.S. administration and its attitude toward Beijing. It said Xi made “candid” comments on Taiwan during the exchange between the leaders.
中国外交部在电话会议后发表了一份声明，其中充斥着对美国政府及其对北京态度的批评。 报道称，希望在领导人交流期间对台湾发表了“坦率”的评论。
“We firmly oppose ‘Taiwan independence’ separatism and interference by external forces, and will never leave any space for ‘Taiwan independence’ forces in any form,” the statement said, adding that “those who play with fire will perish by it. I hope the U.S. side can see this clearly.”
声明说：“我们坚决反对‘台独’分裂主义和外部势力干涉，绝不会给任何形式的‘台独’势力留下任何空间，玩火者必亡。 希望美方看清这一点。”
The White House initially issued a brief statement saying the call was an effort to maintain communication between the two countries, confirming that Taiwan was discussed along with climate and health security issues. Biden reiterated to Xi that the U.S. policy on Taiwan remained unchanged and that the United States opposes any threat to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, the statement said.
白宫最初发表了一份简短声明，称此次通话是为了保持两国之间的沟通，确认台湾与气候和健康安全问题一起被讨论。 声明称，拜登向希望重申，美国对台政策没有改变，美国反对任何威胁台海和平稳定的行为。
The conversation was the fifth between the two leaders since Biden took office. China’s Foreign Ministry said that aside from Taiwan, the leaders discussed Ukraine, as well as communication between the two countries over economic issues, energy and food security matters.
这是拜登上任以来两位领导人之间的第五次对话。 中国外交部表示，除了台湾之外，两国领导人还讨论了乌克兰，以及两国在经济、能源和粮食安全等问题上的沟通。
The Chinese Communist Party, despite having never ruled Taiwan, insists that the self-governing island of 23 million is part of its territory and threatens the use of force should the democratically elected administration in Taipei declare formal independence. Beijing is highly sensitive to any sign of support or respect for Taiwan, and a possible visit by Pelosi has become an irritant between the United States and China in recent days.
中国共产党尽管从未统治过台湾，但坚持认为这个拥有 2300 万人口的自治岛屿是其领土的一部分，并威胁在台北民选政府宣布正式独立时使用武力。 北京对任何支持或尊重台湾的迹象都高度敏感，而佩洛西可能访问台湾已成为最近几天中美之间的烦扰。
“If Pelosi goes, then that really will push things to the edge of a cliff and will break the relationship’s guardrails,” said Lu Xiang, research director at the Chinese Institute of Hong Kong, an affiliate of the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
“如果佩洛西去，那真的会把事情推到悬崖边，打破关系的护栏，”国营中国社会科学院附属香港中文研究所研究主任卢翔说。 科学。
He added that Beijing does not accept the argument that Biden cannot prevent Pelosi from visiting because of the separation of powers, and it instead considers her potential trip an indicator of the administration’s willingness to depart from the foundational understandings of the U.S.-China relationship.
他补充说，北京不接受拜登不能因为三权分立而阻止佩洛西访问的论点，而是认为她的潜在访问表明政府愿意背离对美中关系的基本理解。
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At the end of the Trump administration, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi declared that Beijing viewed the relationship as being at its worst point since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979. Four earlier phone calls between Xi and Biden, as well as numerous lengthy meetings between top diplomats, have not brought about a significant detente.
特朗普政府结束时，中国外交部长王毅宣布，北京认为中美关系处于自 1979 年建交以来最糟糕的时刻。希望和拜登此前四次通电话，两国之间也进行了多次冗长的会晤。 高级外交官并没有带来明显的缓和。
In a meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken this month, Wang delivered four lists that Beijing hopes to guide the relationship, including one on “U.S. wrongdoings that must stop” and another on areas of possible cooperation if tensions are reduced.
在本月与国务卿安东尼·布林肯的会晤中，王提出了四份北京希望引导两国关系的清单，其中一份是关于“美国。 必须停止的不法行为”和另一个关于如果紧张局势缓解可能合作的领域。
Progress on areas of shared concern will be impossible until the Taiwan issue is resolved, said Lu, adding that China has found Biden harder to understand than Donald Trump because the latter was “intentionally unpredictable” while the current administration appears to Beijing to be “unintentionally unpredictable” and unable to enforce a clear policy on Taiwan. He noted that the severity of the disagreement over Pelosi’s visit could cause the leaders’ call to be delayed or canceled.
卢说，在台湾问题得到解决之前，共同关心的领域不可能取得进展，并补充说，中国发现拜登比唐纳德特朗普更难理解，因为后者“故意不可预测”，而现任政府在北京看来是“无意的” 不可预测”，无法对台湾执行明确的政策。 他指出，佩洛西访问分歧的严重性可能导致领导人的通话被推迟或取消。
The United States maintains that its one-China policy — which neither challenges nor endorses Beijing’s territorial claims and is intentionally vague about whether the U.S. military would intervene in cross-strait conflict — is unchanged.
美国坚称，其一个中国政策——既不挑战也不支持北京的领土主张，并且有意模糊美军是否会干预两岸冲突——没有改变。
China’s Foreign Ministry said that Biden reiterated the U.S. policy of not supporting Taiwanese independence during Thursday’s call, and urged the United States not to stray from that position.
中国外交部表示，拜登在周四的电话会议中重申了美国不支持台独的政策，并敦促美国不要偏离这一立场。
Xi and Biden’s last call, in March, focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the implications of the crisis for U.S.-China relations. Biden warned Xi that there would be consequences if Beijing aided Russia economically or militarily in its war against its neighbor, officials said then.
希望和拜登在 3 月的最后一次电话会议重点关注俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以及这场危机对美中关系的影响。 官员们当时表示，拜登警告希望，如果北京在经济或军事上帮助俄罗斯对抗邻国，将会产生后果。
White House officials have since said they have not seen “systematic efforts” to help the Russians evade sanctions and export controls.
白宫官员此后表示，他们没有看到中国帮助俄罗斯逃避制裁和出口管制的“系统性努力”。
The call also comes as Xi is preparing for a twice-per-decade political meeting, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, where he is expected to take on a precedent-breaking third term as general secretary of the party, affirming his position as China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.
与此同时，希望正在筹备每十年两次的政治会议，即中国共产党第 20 次全国代表大会，预计他将打破先例继续第三任党总书记任期，肯定了他成为自腊肉以来中国最强大的领导人。
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The call was in the works before the controversy of Pelosi’s trip erupted. But tensions spiked this month after Beijing threatened consequences if Pelosi followed through with her planned visit to Taiwan in August, pledging to take “strong measures” in response.
在佩洛西之行的争议爆发之前，这个电话会议就在筹备中。 但本月紧张局势加剧，此前北京威胁说，如果佩洛西按计划在 8 月访问台湾，将采取“强有力的措施”作为回应。
Although delegations of lawmakers make trips to Taiwan periodically — Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) was there this month and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) visited from May 30 to June 1, Pelosi would be the first House speaker to visit since Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) in 1997.
尽管立法者代表团定期访问台湾——参议员里克斯科特本月在那里，参议员塔米达克沃斯于 5 月 30 日至 6 月 1 日访问了台湾，但佩洛西将成为自 1997 年 Newt Gingrich以来第一位众议院议长访问台湾。
The Biden administration has become increasingly concerned that such a trip at this time — ahead of the major party conclave in the fall — could provoke China to respond in a way that sparks a crisis across the Taiwan Strait, and defense, military and intelligence officials have mounted a vigorous effort to lay out the risks to the speaker’s office. Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, personally briefed Pelosi.
拜登政府越来越担心此时的这样一次访问——在主要政党秋季会议之前——可能会激起中国以引发台海危机的方式做出回应，而国防、军事和情报官员已经加紧努力，为议长办公室布置风险。 参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利将军亲自向佩洛西介绍了情况。
The USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and its strike group, meanwhile, have returned to the South China Sea after a port call in Singapore, Reuters reported Thursday.
据路透社周四报道，与此同时，美国罗纳德·里根号航空母舰及其战斗群在新加坡停靠后返回南海。
Biden himself, however, has not spoken with Pelosi. That might persuade her, analysts said, but the administration, saying it respects separation of powers, “does not want it to appear that Biden turned it off,” said one person familiar with the matter.
然而，拜登本人并未与佩洛西交谈。 分析人士说，这可能会说服她，但政府称其尊重三权分立，“不希望看起来是拜登关掉了它，”一位知情人士说。
Analysts Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund and Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, argued in an op-ed in the New York Times that China and the United States are on a “collision course in the Taiwan Strait” and that Pelosi’s visit could provide the “single spark [that] could ignite this combustible situation into a crisis that escalates to military conflict.”
分析师、德国马歇尔基金亚洲项目主任邦妮·格拉泽和美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克·库珀在《纽约时报》的一篇专栏文章中指出，中国和美国正处于“冲突的过程中”。 在台湾海峡”，佩洛西的访问可以提供“单一的火花，可以将这种可燃的局势点燃成一场升级为军事冲突的危机。”
But some former U.S. officials played down those fears, saying a military conflict is unlikely.
但一些前美国官员淡化了这些担忧，称不太可能发生军事冲突。
In the short term, said one former senior U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity, “the administration fears a freeze in the relationship arising out of a Pelosi trip might close channels of communication to responsibly manage ties.”
一位因此事敏感而要求匿名的美国前高级官员说，在短期内，“政府担心佩洛西之行导致关系冻结，可能会关闭用以管理两国关系的沟通渠道。 ”
The former official added: “But in the medium term, it opens up space for the allies to show more public support for Taiwan by citing the U.S. example. That’s the trend of the last few years. If the United States does things more openly, others will be willing to, too.”
这位前官员补充说：“但从中期来看，它为盟国通过引用美国的例子来展示更多对台湾的公开支持开辟了空间。 这是近几年的趋势。 如果美国做事更公开，其他国家也会愿意。”
“If Pelosi visits Taiwan, then she is pushing the envelope. In that case, Beijing will respond by pushing the envelope on the Taiwan issue, too. That’s why the Chinese military has sent a strong signal to U.S. counterparts,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute for International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
“如果佩洛西访问台湾，那么她就是在挑战极限。 在这种情况下，北京也将在台湾问题上推波助澜。 这就是中国军方向美国同行发出强烈信号的原因，”上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴新波说。
Many Taiwanese security experts, however, argue that Beijing’s angry response is mostly for show and play down the possibility that China will intervene militarily to prevent a visit with risky maneuvers like shadowing Pelosi’s plane into Taiwanese airspace. They instead suggest that China will signal displeasure through increased saber-rattling, such as sending dozens of People’s Liberation Army aircraft deep into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
然而，许多台湾安全专家认为，北京的愤怒反应主要是为了炫耀，并淡化中国将通过军事干预来阻止访问的可能性，例如让佩洛西的飞机进入台湾领空。 相反，他们建议中国将通过增加武力来表达不满，例如将数十架中国人民解放军的飞机深入台湾的防空识别区。
Taiwan’s military has said that rising concerns of a new Taiwan Strait crisis did not lead to adjustments in military preparedness drills held across Taiwan this week. In a speech on Tuesday, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen did not address concerns over the possible visit but warned of increasing “gray zone” tactics — coercive military maneuvers that stop short of outright conflict — from authoritarian nations that were upsetting the regional security balance.
台湾军方表示，对新台海危机的担忧加剧并未导致本周在台湾各地举行的军事准备演习进行调整。 在周二的讲话中，台湾总统蔡英文没有解决对可能访问的担忧，但警告说，威权国家正在破坏地区安全平衡，正在增加“灰色地带”策略——强制军事演习，避免发生彻底冲突。 .
“In Taiwan, the focus is more on whether the U.S. can withstand the pressure,” said Jeremy Huai-Che Chiang, a Taipei-based analyst and former researcher at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, a think tank. “Many experts in Taiwan are surprised by the overreaction to the Pelosi trip in the U.S. think tank community.”
“在台湾，人们更多关注的是美国能否承受压力，”驻台北的分析师、智库台亚交流基金会前研究员蒋怀哲说。 “许多台湾专家对美国智库界对佩洛西之行反应过度感到惊讶。”
At stake for Taiwan is a trend of former and current officials from friendly countries who, assuming U.S. support, have made increasingly frequent visits to Taipei despite Beijing’s censure. “If the U.S. can’t stand it anymore, what signal does it send to our allies?” Chiang asked.
对台湾有利的是友好国家的前任和现任官员的趋势，假设美国支持，尽管北京受到谴责，他们仍越来越频繁地访问台北。 “如果美国受不了了，它会给我们的盟友发出什么信号？” 蒋问。
John Kirby, a White House spokesman, said Tuesday that the call was about tending to a critical international relationship.
白宫发言人约翰·柯比周二表示，这次通话是关于倾向于建立一种至关重要的国际关系。
“This is one of the most consequential bilateral relationships in the world, in one of the most important parts of the Indo-Pacific region,” Kirby said. “And from everything from the tensions over Taiwan to the war in Ukraine, as well as how we better manage competition between our two nations, certainly in the economic sphere, there’s a host of issues.”
“这是世界上最重要的双边关系之一，位于印太地区最重要的地区之一，”柯比说。 “从台湾紧张局势到乌克兰战争，以及我们如何更好地管理两国之间的竞争，当然在经济领域，都有很多问题。”
He added that Biden “wants to make sure that the lines of communication with President Xi [remain open] on all the issues, whether they’re issues that we agree on or issues where we have significant difficulties.”
他补充说，拜登“希望确保与希望在所有问题上的沟通渠道[保持开放]，无论是我们同意的问题还是我们遇到重大困难的问题。”标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。
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