[2022-08-13] 华尔街日报 - 习近平就台湾问题向拜登传达信息：现在不是危机的时候
![]() In call ahead of Pelosi visit, Chinese leader indicated that Beijing had no intention of going to war, according to people close to China’s decision-making
据接近中国决策层的人士透露，中国领导人在佩洛西访问前的电话中表示北京无意开战
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By Lingling Wei
Aug. 11, 2022 1:58 pm ET
作者：魏玲玲
美国东部时间 2022 年 8 月 11 日下午 1:58
Four days before U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Chinese leader Xi Jinping got on the phone with President Biden and delivered a message: Now isn’t the time for a full-blown crisis.
在美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西访台前四天，中国国家主席希望与拜登总统通电话并传递信息：现在不是全面爆发危机的时候。
Mr. Xi—who views bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control as central to his vision of Chinese national revival—was frustrated that months of diplomatic effortshad failed to stop Mrs. Pelosi’s planned trip, according to people close to China’s decision-making process.
据了解中国决策过程的人士称，希望认为将台湾置于北京的控制之下是他对中国民族复兴愿景的核心，他对数月的外交努力未能阻止佩洛西夫人的计划之行感到沮丧。
In the July 28 conversation, Mr. Xi warned Mr. Biden of unspecified consequences if Mrs. Pelosi went to Taipei, people briefed on the call said. But he also indicated that he had no intention of going to war with the U.S. and said both sides needed to “maintain peace and security,” according to the people.
了解电话情况的人士说，在 7 月 28 日的通话中，希望警告拜登，如果佩洛西夫人前往台北，后果未明。 但据知情人士称，他也表示他无意与美国开战，并表示双方都需要“维护和平与安全”。
Asked about the discussion, Liu Pengyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said: “President Xi elaborated on China’s principled position on the Taiwan question” in his discussion with Mr. Biden.
在被问及讨论情况时，中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇说：“希望在与拜登先生的讨论中阐述了中国在台湾问题上的原则立场”。
Biden administration officials said they made it clear to Beijing that Washington is committed to the “One China” policy that has long underpinned the relationship between the two countries but that lawmakers have the right to visit Taiwan.
拜登政府官员表示，他们向北京明确表示，华盛顿致力于长期支撑两国关系的“一个中国”政策，但立法者有权访问台湾。
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After Mrs. Pelosi left Taiwan, China reacted with days of large-scale military exercises that effectively imposed a temporary blockade on democratically governed Taiwan, halted cooperation with Washington on climate and some other issues and froze some military contacts.
佩洛西夫人离开台湾后，中国以数日的大规模军事演习作为回应，有效地对民主治理的台湾实施了临时封锁，停止了与华盛顿在气候和其他一些问题上的合作，并冻结了一些军事接触。
China’s leaders sought to calibrate their response to be forceful but not provoke an escalatory response from Washington and its allies, said the people familiar with Beijing’s thinking.
熟悉北京想法的人士说，中国领导人试图调整他们的反应，使其变得有力，但不会激起华盛顿及其盟友的升级反应。
For Mr. Xi, an important factor was his desire for stability ahead of a high-level Communist Party conclave later this year when he is expected to be confirmedas the country’s paramount leader for another five years.
对希望来说，一个重要因素是他希望在今年晚些时候召开的中共高层会议之前保持稳定，届时他预计将被确认为该国最高领导人的任期再过五年。
Still, China’s actions have further strained relations with the U.S. and raised security concerns among its allies. Other countries across Asia and Europe fear Beijing’s approach could herald the start of a new phase of more direct pressure on Taiwan.
尽管如此，中国的行动进一步加剧了与美国的关系，并引发了盟国的安全担忧。 亚洲和欧洲的其他国家担心，北京的做法可能预示着对台湾施加更直接压力的新阶段的开始。
“Beijing will be uber-reactive to Taiwan going forward,” said Jude Blanchette, a China specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “That is the defining feature of the U.S.-China relationship for many months to come.”
华盛顿战略与国际研究中心的中国问题专家裘德布兰切特说：“北京未来将对台湾反应过度。” “这是未来几个月美中关系的决定性特征。”
Speaking to Mr. Biden just before Mrs. Pelosi’s visit was politically risky for Mr. Xi, who is eager to project strength in the face of rising discontent within China as a result of his Covid-19 measures and other policies.
就在佩洛西夫人访问之前与拜登先生交谈对希望来说存在政治风险，面对因他的武汉肺炎防疫措施和其他政策而在中国国内日益增长的不满情绪，希望渴望展现实力。
In the end, Mr. Xi decided to talk to Mr. Biden to minimize the risks of a conflict with the U.S., according to the people familiar with the decision-making process.
据熟悉决策过程的人士称，最终希望决定与拜登会谈，以尽量减少与美国发生冲突的风险。
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China’s foreign-policy establishment has historically been careful about scheduling leader-to-leader engagements, concerned about a loss of face should the other side do something contrary to Beijing’s interests soon after the bilateral exchange.
中国的外交政策机构历来对安排领导人与领导人的会面非常谨慎，担心在双边交流后不久对方做出违背北京利益的事情会丢脸。
In 2016, for instance, three months after Mr. Xi met with then-President Obama in Washington and agreed to sign the Paris Agreement on climate, Mr. Obama welcomed to the White House the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader reviled as a separatist by Beijing. Memories of the ensuing political blowback in China remain fresh in Beijing’s diplomatic circles.
例如，2016 年，在希望与时任总统奥巴马在华盛顿会晤并同意签署《巴黎气候协定》三个月后，奥巴马欢迎西藏精神领袖达赖喇嘛入主白宫。 由北京。 在北京的外交圈子里，中国随之而来的政治反击仍然记忆犹新。
Chinese officials had warned Washington against a Taiwan visit by Mrs. Pelosi since April, when news reports first revealed the speaker’s travel plans. Mrs. Pelosi had to postpone the journey after testing positive for Covid-19.
自 4 月新闻报道首次披露佩洛西的旅行计划以来，中国官员就警告华盛顿不要让佩洛西访问台湾。 佩洛西夫人在武汉肺炎检测呈阳性后不得不推迟行程。
Beijing worries that Mrs. Pelosi’s visit could trigger a “domino effect” of other world politicians traveling to Taipei, boosting its international standing and potentially encouraging a declaration of independence, according to the people with knowledge of Chinese thinking.
据了解中国思想的人士称，北京担心佩洛西夫人的访问可能引发其他世界政客前往台北的“多米诺骨牌效应”，从而提升其国际地位，并可能鼓励宣布独立。
Even though Beijing’s long-stated goal is to bring Taiwan under its rule, the people said, its focus for now remains preventing the self-governed island from moving toward formal independence.
知情人士说，尽管北京长期以来的目标是让台湾处于其统治之下，但其目前的重点仍然是阻止这个自治岛屿走向正式独立。
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In an article published last month by the official People’s Daily, Liu Jieyi, director of Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office—who is tipped for a top foreign-policy position in Mr. Xi’s next term—outlined a framework for resolving the Taiwan issue that pledged to “resolutely crack down on Taiwan independence separatist acts.” The article still listed “peaceful reunification” as its basic principle, but didn’t renounce the use of force.
在官方《人民日报》上个月发表的一篇文章中，北京国台办主任刘结一（他有望在希望下一届任期内担任最高外交政策职务）概述了解决台湾问题的框架，该框架承诺 “坚决打击台独分裂行径。” 文章仍将“和平统一”列为基本原则，但并未放弃使用武力。
On Wednesday, the Taiwan Affairs Office followed up with its first policy paper on Taiwan in 22 years, reaffirming that approach. But in one notable change from previous policy papers in 1993 and 2000, the latest version removed a clause that ruled out the stationing of China’s military in Taiwan should the island submit to Beijing’s policy of “one country, two systems.”
周三，台湾事务办公室跟进了其 22 年来的第一份对台政策文件，重申了这一做法。 但与 1993 年和 2000 年之前的政策文件相比，最新版本的一个显着变化是删除了一项条款，即如果台湾服从北京的“一个国家，两个制度”的政策，则排除中国军队在台湾驻扎的条款。
In the past few weeks, it became increasingly clear there was little Beijing could do to deter Mrs. Pelosi’s trip. “China has done everything diplomatically possible,” said Mr. Liu, the Chinese Embassy spokesman.
在过去的几周里，越来越明显的是，北京几乎无法阻止佩洛西夫人的访问。 “中国在外交上做了一切可能的事情，”中国大使馆发言人刘先生说。
Taiwan was a key topic of discussion between Messrs. Biden and Xi when they spoke on the phone.
台湾是拜登和希望通电话时讨论的关键话题。
Mr. Biden explained the division of governmental authority among the legislative, executive and judicial branches and reminded his Chinese counterpart of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s visit to Taiwan 25 years ago, according to the people briefed on the call.
据知情人士透露，拜登先生解释了立法、行政和司法部门之间的政府权力划分，并提醒他的中国同行，前众议院议长纽特·金里奇（Newt Gingrich）25年前访问台湾。
In the end, both leaders agreed to maintain communication and to proceed with plans for a face-to-face meeting at an unspecified date, the people said. If such a meeting takes place after Mr. Xi secures his next term, it would be seen in Beijing as a status booster for the Chinese leader.
知情人士说，最终，两位领导人同意保持沟通，并继续制定在未指定日期举行面对面会议的计划。 如果在希望确保下一个任期后举行这样的会议，北京将被视为中国领导人地位的助推器。
While trying not to dramatically escalate tensions with the U.S. for now, Mr. Xi has had to make a show of strength domestically. For instance, the Chinese media livestreamed the launch of missiles into the waters around Taiwan. And nationalistic media personalities and scholars representing more hawkish viewpoints within the government had warned of a possible war in the Taiwan Strait.
希望在努力暂时不让与美国的紧张关系急剧升级的同时，不得不在国内展示实力。 例如，中国媒体直播了向台湾周边海域发射导弹的情况。 政府内部代表更鹰派观点的民族主义媒体人士和学者警告说，台海可能发生战争。
Some foreign-policy analysts expect Mr. Xi to grow bolder in confronting the U.S. and pressuring Taiwan and other jurisdictions in his next term.
一些外交政策分析人士预计，希望在下个任期内对抗美国以及向台湾和其他司法管辖区施压时会变得更加大胆。
“Xi’s top priority right now is stability,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank. “Beijing so far has shown a great deal of restraint but that’s a short-term tactic aimed at preventing the relations with the U.S. from spinning out of control.”
“希望现在的首要任务是稳定，”华盛顿智库史汀生中心中国项目主任孙云说。 “到目前为止，北京表现出很大的克制，但这是一种短期策略，旨在防止与美国的关系失控。”标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。哎哟哟，爱国红狼们的耳光都白扇了。原来一开始就是被当作狗耍啊。
走喽，下楼准备去做武汉肺炎测试啦！免费测试，真开心！
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