[2022-08-16] 华邮 - 中国意外降息，经济放缓导致油价暴跌
![]() Oil prices fell 4.6 percent on the prospect of lower demand, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude to $88 a barrel
By Hamza Shaban
Updated August 15, 2022 at 6:11 p.m. EDT|Published August 15, 2022 at 10:54 a.m. EDT
由于需求下降，油价下跌 4.6%，将西德克萨斯中质原油推高至每桶 88 美元
哈姆扎沙班
2022 年 8 月 15 日下午 6:11 更新 美国东部时间|美国东部时间 2022 年 8 月 15 日上午 10:54 发布
China’s central bank unexpectedly slashed rates Monday after data showed economic activity slowed broadly in July — including consumer spending and factory output — sending oil prices down sharply and reigniting concerns of a global downturn.
中国央行周一出人意料地降息，此前数据显示 7 月份经济活动（包括消费者支出和工厂产出）普遍放缓，导致油价大幅下跌并重新引发对全球经济衰退的担忧。
The underwhelming performance signaled that the recovery is tapering off amid an array of economic challenges, including continuing fallout from the nation’s “zero covid” policy and real estate crisis. But the specter of falling demand from the world’s second-largest economy alarmed energy markets. Oil prices slid more than 4.6 percent, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude to $88 a barrel.
令人失望的表现表明，在一系列经济挑战中，包括国家“动态清零”政策和房地产危机的持续影响，复苏正在逐渐减弱。 但世界第二大经济体需求下降令能源市场感到震惊。 油价下跌超过 4.6%，将西德克萨斯中质原油推高至每桶 88 美元。
Much like the conflicting priorities that central bankers in other countries are facing, Chinese policymakers are closely tracking inflation and rising debt levels. But a sputtering domestic economy appeared to take priority, prompting the People’s Bank of China to cut its medium-term lending rate to 2.75 percent, or 10 basis points, for its first reduction since January.
就像其他国家的央行行长面临的重中之重都是互相矛盾的一样，中国决策者正在密切关注通胀和不断上升的债务水平。 但不景气的国内经济似乎成为重中之重，促使中国人民银行将中期贷款利率下调至 2.75%，即 10 个基点，这是自 1 月份以来的首次下调。
The central bank “seems to have decided it now has a more pressing problem,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist who covers China for the economic research firm Capital Economics. The July data shows lackluster economic momentum and a slowdown in credit growth, “which has been less responsive to policy easing than during previous economic downturns.”
为经济研究公司凯投宏观负责中国的经济学家朱利安·埃文斯-普里查德说，央行“似乎已经决定现在面临一个更紧迫的问题”。 7 月份的数据显示经济动能乏善可陈，信贷增长放缓，“与之前的经济低迷时期相比，信贷对宽松政策的反应较弱。”
Figures for both retail sales and industrial production grew last month compared with the same month last year, rising 2.7 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. But they fell well short of forecasts of 5 percent and 4.6 percent growth, and both metrics slowed compared with increases recorded in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
上月零售销售和工业生产数据均较去年同期增长，分别增长2.7%和3.8%。 但根据国家统计局的数据，它们远低于预期的 5% 和 4.6% 的增长，而且与 6 月份记录的增长相比，这两个指标均有所放缓。
The developments threw Wall Street into a sour mood before stocks rallied. By the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average gained more than 151 points or 0.4 percent, to close at 33,912. The broader S&P 500 index rose 17 points, or 0.4 percent, to end at 4,297, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq increased nearly 81 points, or 0.6 percent, to settle just above 13,128.
在股市反弹之前，这些事态发展让华尔街陷入了一种糟糕的情绪。 收盘时，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨超过 151 点或 0.4%，收于 33,912 点。 更广泛的标准普尔 500 指数上涨 17 点，或 0.4%，收于 4,297，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上涨近 81 点，或 0.6%，收于 13,128 点上方。
“The momentum of economic recovery has slowed,” government spokesman Fu Linghui said during a news conference, the Associated Press reported. “More efforts are needed to consolidate the foundation of economic recovery.”
据美联社报道，政府发言人傅令辉在新闻发布会上说：“经济复苏势头已经放缓。” “要进一步夯实经济复苏的基础。”
For months, a large contingent of Chinese home buyers have refused to pay mortgages on properties they’ve bought but that developers have yet to finish, leading to sinking real estate values. The boycotts, which are tied to more than 100 delayed projects, have raised concerns the property market could collapse, a scenario that would undermine the nation’s financial system and have ripple effects for the global economy.
几个月来，大量中国购房者拒绝为他们购买的房产支付抵押贷款，但开发商尚未完成，导致房地产价格下跌。 与 100 多个延迟项目相关的抵制活动引发了人们对房地产市场可能崩溃的担忧，这种情况将破坏国家的金融体系，并对全球经济产生连锁反应。
For more than a decade, construction and real estate have helped fuel China’s astounding economic growth and bolstered an emerging middle class, underscoring the significance of the mortgage crisis and the damage the unraveling crisis could unleash.
十多年来，建筑和房地产帮助推动了中国惊人的经济增长，并支持了新兴的中产阶级，突显了抵押贷款危机的重要性以及即将爆发的危机可能带来的破坏。
The economic slowdown is more fallout from Beijing’s efforts to contain coronavirus infections. Last year, China more than regained pre-pandemic economic activity, leading major economies in the recovery from the public health crisis, despite limitations on travel and the lower efficacy rates of the country’s coronavirus vaccines. But the rebound appears to have been short-lived.
经济放缓更多是北京控制武汉肺炎感染的努力的结果。 去年，中国不仅恢复了大流行前的经济活动，引领主要经济体从公共卫生危机中复苏，尽管旅行受到限制且该国武汉肺炎疫苗的有效率较低。 但反弹似乎是短暂的。
Other nations that have pursued less stringent public health policies have largely reopened businesses, schools and government services. But Chinese leaders have not wavered from their zero-covid approach of stamping out every outbreak through stringent measures that include frequent and sudden lockdowns, rounds of mass testing and constant uncertainty for the people living there.
其他采取不那么严格的公共卫生政策的国家在很大程度上重新开放了企业、学校和政府服务。 但中国领导人坚持动态清零不动摇，即通过频繁和突然的封锁、多轮大规模检测以及对居住在那里的人们的持续不确定性等严格措施来消灭每一次疫情。
“The July data suggest that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam as the one-off boost from reopening fizzled out and mortgage boycotts triggered a renewed deterioration in the property sector,” Evans-Pritchard said in a research note Monday.
埃文斯-普里查德周一在一份研究报告中表示：“7 月的数据表明，由于重新开放带来的一次性提振作用逐渐消退，而抵押贷款抵制引发了房地产行业的再度恶化，7 月份的数据表明，封锁后的复苏失去了动力。”
The worrying economic data highlights the interdependence of financial markets and the importance of the Chinese economy. Concerns of a global downturn have already taken hold as aftershocks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine continue to reverberate, sending prices skyward for oil, wheat and fertilizer.
令人担忧的经济数据凸显了金融市场的相互依存以及中国经济的重要性。 随着俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的余震继续回荡，导致石油、小麦和化肥的价格飙升，对全球经济衰退的担忧已经占据了上风。
It also underlines the uneven nature of the covid-era recovery. In recent days, an upbeat inflation report in the United States and new unemployment data indicating that employers added a stunning 528,000 jobs last month were released.
它还强调了疫情时期复苏的不平衡性质。 最近几天，美国公布了乐观的通胀报告和新的失业数据，显示上个月雇主增加了惊人的 528,000 个工作岗位。
The July jobs report capped a staggering 19 months worth of gains and brought the U.S. unemployment rate down to 3.5 percent — its lowest point since February 2020, tying for the lowest rate since 1969. The job market has more than recovered its pandemic losses and the momentum has afforded workers historic wage gains and more leverage at their jobs.
7 月份的就业报告限制了 19 个月的惊人涨幅，并使美国失业率降至 3.5%——这是自 2020 年 2 月以来的最低点，与 1969 年以来的最低水平持平。就业市场已经弥补了大流行造成的损失，而 这种势头为工人提供了历史性的工资增长和更多的工作影响力。
Economists and White House officials had predicted a slowdown in job growth last month due to economic indicators that raised alarms. Inflation hit 40-year highs and the economy shrank over the past six months on the year, typically a benchmark for recessions. The financial markets have also lost trillions of dollars in value this year, and one measure of consumer sentiment hit a record low in June.
经济学家和白宫官员上个月曾预测，由于经济指标引发警报，就业增长将放缓。 通货膨胀达到 40 年来的最高点，经济在过去六个月中出现萎缩，这通常是衰退的基准。 今年金融市场也损失了数万亿美元的价值，衡量消费者信心的一项指标在 6 月创下历史新低。
And signs of a looming global recession can be found elsewhere. On July 21, the European Union raised interest rates in a bid to tamp down inflation, putting an end to an era of easy money that has for years driven robust economic growth. Two weeks later, the Bank of England followed suit, raising its primary interest rate by half a percentage point — its largest increase since 1995 — and warned that Britain would enter a protracted recession before the end of the year.
在其他地方也可以找到全球衰退迫在眉睫的迹象。 7 月 21 日，欧盟提高利率以抑制通胀，结束多年来推动经济强劲增长的宽松货币时代。 两周后，英格兰银行效仿，将基本利率提高了半个百分点——这是自 1995 年以来的最大增幅——并警告称英国将在年底前进入长期衰退。标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。行啦行啦，甭天天说我夹私货了。有那工夫赶紧让这些国内媒体也别夹私货。说得好像他们也听你的一样。![]() ![]() 安徽人民躺枪都没说啥。![]()
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