[2022-10-17] 经济学人 - 大戏开始
![]() The Communist Party’s big event will highlight Xi Jinping’s power
共产党的大事件将彰显习近平的力量
NO OTHER REGULAR political event in China involves the mobilisation of people and resources on the scale of a Communist Party congress. None other dominates the agenda of so many officials, for so long. Never mind that the country is being battered by pandemic-related lock-downs—red banners everywhere urge citizens to “joyously welcome” the gathering that will open on October 16th. As they do every five years when such events are held, the country’s eyes are turning to the capital, Beijing, for the party’s big reveal, the tightly choreographed culmination of months of secretive dealmaking.
在中国，没有其他任何常规政治事件涉及到像共产党代表大会那样动员人力和资源。 这么长时间以来，没有其他人能主导这么多官员的议程。 别介意这个国家正受到与疫情相关的封锁的打击——到处都是红色横幅，敦促公民“热烈欢迎”将于 10 月 16 日开幕的聚会。 就像每五年举行一次此类活动一样，中国的目光正转向首都北京，以了解该党的重大披露，这是数月秘密交易精心编排的高潮。
Party congresses are closely watched because they involve a huge turnover of the party’s senior leadership and provide clues to its long-term priorities in domestic and foreign affairs. This one will be striking. More than any other since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, it will showcase the power and achievements of one man. In the build-up to this event, state media have been filled with adulation for the “people’s leader”, the “helmsman”, the “navigator” whose wisdom has steered China to within reach of a “great rejuvenation”. This torrent of praise is intended to hint that only Mr Xi can enable China to attain that goal, and therefore—despite a convention that party leaders serve a maximum of two five-year terms—he must remain the party’s boss.
党代会之所以受到密切关注，是因为它涉及党的高级领导层的大量更替，并为其在国内外事务中的长期优先事项提供线索。 这将是惊人的。 自 1976 年毛泽东逝世以来，它比任何其他作品都更能展示一个人的力量和成就。 在这场盛会的筹备过程中，官方媒体对这位“人民领袖”、“舵手”、“领航者”充满了赞美，他们的智慧引领中国走向“伟大复兴”。 这种赞美的洪流意在暗示，只有习近平才能使中国实现这一目标，因此——尽管有党的领导人最多任职两个五年任期的惯例——他必须仍然是党的老板。
In theory, the congress could boot him out. The most important duty of its nearly 2,300 delegates is to cast ballots for the selection of a new Central Committee, a body comprising about 370 high-ranking officials and military commanders as well as bosses of large state-owned enterprises and other grandees. The number of candidates is expected to exceed the number of seats by more than 8%, so theoretically Mr Xi could fail to make the grade.
理论上，党代会可以把他赶出去。 其近2300名代表的最重要职责是为新一届中央委员会的选举投票，该机构由大约370名高级官员和军事指挥官以及大型国有企业的老板和其他大人物组成。 候选人的数量预计将超过席位数量的8%以上，因此理论上习近平可能无法通过。
At the 15th congress in 1997, Mr Xi—then the deputy party chief of the province of Fujian—only just squeaked into the Central Committee as a non-voting member. He had the lowest number of votes. He has been elected as a full member at every congress since, and needs to keep that position in order to remain in the Politburo.
在 1997 年的第十五次全国代表大会上，时任福建省委副书记的习近平只是以无表决权的身份悄悄进入中央委员会。 他得票最少。 从那以后，他在每次代表大会上都被选为正式成员，并且需要保持这一职位才能留在政治局。
In reality, there is no chance of humiliation this time. Last year the Central Committee pronounced that establishing Mr Xi as the leadership’s “core”, and his political ideas as a guiding ideology, reflected the party’s “deepest wishes”. The importance of upholding these “two establishes” has been drilled into delegates at pre-congress training sessions. On the day after the gathering the reshuffled Central Committee (more than half of its members will be new) will meet to “elect” a new Politburo and Party Military Commission—ie, rubber-stamp decisions already made. Mr Xi will undoubtedly be given new five-year terms as chiefs of both. At its annual session next year, probably in March, the national legislature will give Mr Xi another five years as state president, a title mostly used when dealing with foreigners.
事实上，这一次没有丢脸的机会。 去年中央委员会宣布，确立习近平为领导班子的“核心”，以他的政治思想为指导思想，体现了党的“最深切的愿望”。 在会前培训课程中，代表们已经向代表们灌输了维护这“两个确立”的重要性。 在集会后的第二天，改组的中央委员会（超过一半的成员将是新成员）将开会“选举”新的政治局和党的军事委员会——即，已经做出橡皮图章的决定。 毫无疑问，习近平将获得新的五年任期，担任两国领导人。 在明年的年度会议上，可能在 3 月，全国人大将再授予习近平五年的国家主席任期，这个头衔主要用于与外国人打交道。
The new Politburo, which currently has 25 members, is expected to include even more of his protégés. It is unlikely that new members of its Standing Committee, now comprising seven men, will include a younger politician who is clearly being groomed to take over from Mr Xi at the next congress in 2027. “For the moment he is concentrating on further consolidating his own power to ensure his lasting legacy,” writes Charles Parton in a report for the Council on Geostrategy, a think-tank in London. “Sharing the limelight would be distracting for all.”
新的政治局目前有 25 名成员，预计将包括更多他的门生。 目前由七名男性组成的常务委员会新成员不太可能包括一位年轻的政治家，他显然准备在 2027 年的下届代表大会上接替习近平。 拥有自己的权力来确保他的持久遗产，”查尔斯·帕顿在为伦敦智库地缘战略委员会提交的一份报告中写道。 “分享聚光灯会分散所有人的注意力。”
Many observers now believe that Mr Xi aims to serve for at least two more terms. In 2032 he will turn 79, still younger than Mao was when he died (82) and Deng Xiaoping when he retired (85). Deng remained hugely influential for another several years, with no party titles. Someone of Mr Xi’s power—on a par with that of Deng and Mao—would be unlikely ever to step aside completely unless forced to by ill health or an extremely determined rival.
许多观察家现在认为，习近平的目标是至少再连任两届。 到 2032 年，他将年满 79 岁，比毛泽东去世时（82 岁）和邓小平退休时（85 岁）还要年轻。 邓小平在接下来的几年里仍然具有巨大的影响力，没有党的头衔。 习近平的权力——与邓小平和毛泽东相当——不可能完全下台，除非因健康不佳或极度坚定的对手而被迫下台。
It may be a measure of the discipline Mr Xi has imposed on the party that little has leaked about the Politburo line-up. It remains a topic of wide-ranging speculation. Li Keqiang will give up his job as head of government at next year’s meeting of the legislature. By convention he is young enough, however, to retain his seat on the Politburo Standing Committee. He may become the legislature’s new chief.
这可能是对习近平强加给党的纪律的一种衡量，而关于政治局阵容的消息很少被泄露。 这仍然是一个广泛猜测的话题。 李克强将在明年的立法会议上辞去政府首脑职务。 然而，按照惯例，他足够年轻，可以保住政治局常委的席位。 他可能会成为立法机关的新主席。
Who replaces him will be closely watched. The clue will be in the Standing Committee’s new membership. One possibility is that Han Zheng, Mr Li’s most senior deputy, who is already a member, will take the job. He is 68, which would normally mean he has to retire at this congress, but it is not clear whether the unwritten age rules will apply this time (they will not for Mr Xi). If he leaves, Hu Chunhua, another of Mr Li’s deputies, who is 59, may be promoted to the committee and succeed Mr Li next year. There are other candidates, too, including Wang Yang, a committee member who, at 67, is just young enough. Mr Wang and Mr Hu are not longtime associates of Mr Xi, but neither is Mr Li. It may be that Mr Xi has sidelined the role of prime minister to such an extent that he does not see a pressing need to give the job to someone very close to him.
谁取代他将受到密切关注。 线索将在常委会的新成员中。 一种可能性是，李克强最高级的副手、已经是成员的韩正将接任这份工作。 他今年 68 岁，这通常意味着他必须在这次代表大会上退休，但目前尚不清楚这次不成文的年龄规定是否适用（对习近平来说不适用）。 如果他离开，李克强的另一位 59 岁的副手胡春华可能会被提升为委员会成员，并在明年接替李。 还有其他候选人，包括委员汪洋，他今年 67 岁，还算年轻。 汪洋和胡春华不是习近平的长期伙伴，但李克强也不是。 可能是习近平将总理的角色搁置到如此程度，以至于他认为没有迫切需要将这份工作交给与他非常亲近的人。
No one in the new Politburo will be a threat to Mr Xi. Anyone thinking of grumbling about his rule will be reminded, during the congress, of the dangers of doing so. The party’s disciplinary body will deliver a report at the event. It will describe its work in recent years, which has involved both fighting corruption and ensuring loyalty to Mr Xi. The two tasks intertwine. The report is likely to mention the recent jailing of several security chiefs. They were sentenced for graft, but officials have described them as members of a “political clique” that threatened “party unity”.
新政治局中的任何人都不会对习近平构成威胁。 在国会期间，任何想对他的统治抱怨的人都会被提醒这样做的危险。 党的纪律机构将在活动中提交报告。 它将描述其近年来的工作，其中既涉及反腐败，又涉及确保对习近平的忠诚。 这两个任务交织在一起。 该报告可能会提到最近几名安全负责人入狱。 他们因贪污被判刑，但官员称他们是威胁“政党团结”的“政治集团”的成员。
Here’s a thought
我们看法是
The congress will be peppered with signs of Mr Xi’s power and his determination to flaunt it. These may be evident in tweaks to the party’s charter that delegates will endorse. Details of these have not been revealed, but they may include the shortening of the umbrella term for his political thinking from the wordy “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” to the snappier “Xi Jinping Thought”. That would equate him with Mao.
大会将充斥着习近平权力的迹象和他炫耀权力的决心。 这些可能在代表们将批准的对党章的调整中很明显。 其中的细节尚未透露，但可能包括他的政治思想的总称从冗长的“习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想”缩短为更犀利的“习近平思想”。 那将把他等同于毛泽东。
It will certainly be evident in Mr Xi’s report, which he will read aloud on the first day from a lectern in the Great Hall of the People. At the previous congress in 2017 this took more than three hours. (So much for his demand, soon after taking power, that speeches be kept short.) The report will be filled with praise for the party’s achievements during the past decade—that is, under his rule. It will highlight the elimination of extreme poverty (defined as $2.30 a day at 2011 prices), which the party said it achieved last year. But it will skate over problems, including sputtering economic growth, not least as a result of Mr Xi’s draconian “zero-covid policy”, as well as a stockmarket slump and a shortage of affordable housing in cities (see charts).
这在习近平的报告中肯定会很明显，他将在第一天在人民大会堂的讲台上大声朗读这份报告。 在 2017 年的上一次大会上，这花了三个多小时。 （他在掌权后不久就要求演讲要简短，这太重要了。）报告将充满对党在过去十年——即在他的统治下——所取得的成就的赞美。 它将强调消除极端贫困（以 2011 年的价格定义为每天 2.30 美元），该党表示去年实现了这一目标。 但它会滑过问题，包括经济增长停滞不前，尤其是由于习近平严厉的“动态清零”，以及股市暴跌和城市经济适用房短缺（见图表）。
The aim of the speech will be to distract those who worry about such matters with plenty of feel-goodery. At the congress five years ago Mr Xi raised eyebrows in the West by talking of his country “moving closer to centre stage” in global affairs. This time he will emphasise how much this has happened, possibly with digs at what he and his officials often portray as Western disarray. The zero-covid policy will be declared a great victory (see next story). There will be stern words about Taiwan. Delegates will applaud as he explains the virtues of China’s political system. He will not mention himself, but it will be all about him.
演讲的目的是让那些担心这些事情的人感到很舒服。 五年前的大会上，习近平谈到他的国家在全球事务中“越来越接近中心舞台”，引起了西方的注意。 这一次，他将强调这件事发生了多少，可能是为了挖掘他和他的官员们经常描绘的西方混乱局面。 动态清零政策将被宣布为一场伟大的胜利（见下一个故事）。 台湾会有严厉的言辞。 当他解释中国政治制度的优点时，代表们会鼓掌。 他不会提及自己，但一切都与他有关。![]() 标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。
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