[2023-02-06] 经济学人 - 死亡与否认：我们还会知道中国有多少人死于武汉肺炎吗？
![]() ![]() The wave of covid19 that swept through China recently appears to have abated. Over 80% of the population has caught the virus in the last two months, says the government. The number of new cases is falling. China’s covid policies “can stand the test of history”, said Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, on January 10th. “We protected people’s lives and health to the greatest extent possible.”
近期席卷中国的武汉肺炎疫情似乎有所减弱。 政府表示，在过去两个月中，超过 80% 的人口感染了该病毒。 新病例的数量正在下降。 1 月 10 日，外交部发言人汪文斌表示，中国的武汉肺炎政策“经得起历史的考验”。 “我们尽最大可能保护人们的生命和健康。”
Official data support Mr Wang’s claim. The government says around 5,000 people died at the start of the pandemic in 2020, before China put in place strict “zero covid” controls. Over the next three years few Chinese even caught the virus. After the zero covid policy was scrapped in December, a further 80,000 died, according to the state. By this accounting, China fared much better during its Omicron wave of the virus than other countries (see chart).
官方数据支持王先生的说法。 政府表示，在 2020 年疫情开始时，大约有 5,000 人死亡，当时中国还没有实施严格的“动态清零”控制措施。 在接下来的三年里，很少有中国人感染了这种病毒。 据该州称，在去年 12 月取消动态清零政策后，又有 8 万人死亡。 通过这种计算，中国在 Omicron 病毒浪潮中的表现要比其他国家好得多（见图表）。
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But there is little doubt that China’s data are misleading. Doctors report being pressed to leave covid off death certificates. People who die at home are not counted at all by the state. Reports of over whelmed hospitals and crematoriums suggest a far higher death toll. China was poorly prepared for this wave. Many old people were not fully vaccinated and supplies of covid drugs were inadequate.
但毫无疑问，中国的数据具有误导性。 医生报告说，他们被迫在死亡证明上不可标明死于武汉肺炎。 死在家里的人，国家根本不统计。 有关医院和火葬场人满为患的报告表明死亡人数要高得多。 中国对这一波浪潮准备不足。 许多老人没有完全接种疫苗，武汉肺炎药物供应不足。
The Economist’s own model predicted that if the virus spread unencumbered in China, between 1m and 1.5m people would die of covid during this wave. At a forum on December 17th, Wu Zunyou of China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention suggested that the Omicron variant, which is circulating in China, had a case fatality rate of around 0.1%. That would imply a range of deaths in line with our model. “My startingpoint would be 1m deaths,” says Ben Cowling, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong.
《经济学人》自己的模型预测，如果病毒在中国不受阻碍地传播，这一波疫情期间将有 100 万至 150 万人死于武汉肺炎。 在 12 月 17 日的一次论坛上，中国疾病预防控制中心吴尊友表示，在中国流行的 Omicron 变种的病死率约为 0.1%。 这将意味着一系列符合我们模型的死亡。 “我的出发点是 100 万人死亡，”香港大学流行病学教授本·考林 (Ben Cowling) 说。
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Chinese officials will not like hearing that. They have spent months shaming America for passing 1M covid deaths. “It proves the irresponsibility and incompetence of American politicians in anti epidemic measures,” said a commentary in the People’s Daily, a party mouthpiece, in October. State television often pointed to the number of covid deaths in Western countries as a way of justifying brutal lock downs at home. Even if China were to release a covid death toll in line with independent estimates, its propaganda organs could still boast of having many fewer deaths per 100,000 people than America and other Western countries.
中国官员不会喜欢听到这样的话。 他们花了几个月的时间羞辱美国超过 100 万人死于武汉肺炎。 “这证明了美国政客在抗疫措施上的不负责任和无能，”党的喉舌《人民日报》在 10 月份的一篇评论文章中说。 国家电视台经常指出西方国家的武汉肺炎死亡人数，以此作为在国内实行残酷封锁的理由。 即使中国公布与独立估计相符的武汉肺炎死亡人数，其宣传机构仍可以吹嘘每 10 万人的死亡人数比美国和其他西方国家少得多。
China has said it will eventually release an estimate of “excess deaths”: the gap between how many people died during the outbreak, regardless of cause, and how many deaths would have been expected otherwise. That would, in theory, take in undiagnosed covid deaths and those who died as a result of overwhelmed health services. But experts are skeptical that the number will reflect reality.
中国表示，最终将公布“超额死亡人数”的估计值：即不管何种死因，在疫情爆发期间死亡的人数与原本预计的死亡人数之间的差距。 从理论上讲，这将包括未确诊的武汉肺炎死亡人数和因不堪重负的医疗服务而死亡的人数。 但专家怀疑这个数字能否反映现实。
In general, Chinese people are moving on with their lives. Many travelled home for the lunar new year holiday last month. Factory activity increased in January, as workers quickly shook off infections. But some of those who have lost loved ones are angry. “They basically sent old people to their deaths,” says a woman whose grandmother died. She will not be waiting for the state to release more data: “I don’t believe a word the government says.”
总的来说，中国人的生活还在继续。 许多人上个月回家过农历新年假期。 1 月份工厂复工有所增加，因为工人们迅速阳康。 但一些失去亲人的人很生气。 “他们基本上是送老人去死，”一位祖母去世的妇女说。 她不会等待国家发布更多数据：“我不相信政府说的话。”标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。
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