[2022-08-12] 华邮 - 中国对佩洛西台湾之行的过度反应真实地告诉了我们什么

 

By Josh Rogin
Columnist
August 11, 2022 at 7:00 a.m. EDT
乔什·罗金
专栏作家
美国东部时间 2022 年 8 月 11 日上午 7:00

 

China’s overreaction and retaliation toward Taiwan following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit show that the leadership in Beijing is now focusing on taking the island by force, not through peaceful reunification, as it has long claimed. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s strategy has moved from winning Taiwanese hearts and minds to inciting fear and loathing.
众议院议长南希·佩洛西访问台湾后，中国对台湾的过度反应和报复表明，北京的领导层现在正专注于以武力夺取台湾，而不是像它长期以来声称的那样通过和平统一。 中国国家主席希望的战略已经从赢得台湾人心转向煽动恐惧和厌恶。

Although China seems to be finally winding down its military exercises around Taiwan, a week after Pelosi visited the democratic island, China’s drastic responses and ongoing punishments mark the beginning of a new era of heightened danger. China canceled three military-to-military dialogues and suspended several bilateral cooperation programs on topics ranging from climate change to counternarcotics.
尽管中国似乎终于结束了围绕台湾的军事演习，但在佩洛西访问民主岛屿一周后，中国的激烈反应和持续的惩罚标志着一个危险加剧的新时代的开始。 中国取消了三场两军对话，暂停了从气候变化到禁毒等多个双边合作项目。

But the bulk of China’s actions were aimed at the Taiwanese government, economy and people. China shot missiles over Taiwanese cities for the first time. China’s unprecedented military exercises all around the island could be a dry run for a blockade or an invasion. Economically, China is restricting imports of 100 Taiwanese products. On Aug. 3, Chinese authorities detained a Taiwanese businessman on charges of being a “Taiwanese independence advocate,” a clear threat to all Taiwanese companies that do business in China.
但中国的大部分行动都是针对台湾政府、经济和人民的。 中国首次向台湾城市发射导弹。 中国在全岛范围内进行的史无前例的军事演习可能是封锁或入侵的空前准备。 在经济上，中国限制进口 100 种台湾产品。 8 月 3 日，中国当局以“台独倡导者”的罪名拘留了一名台商，这对所有在中国开展业务的台湾公司构成明显威胁。

Diplomatically, Beijing has sanctioned several Taiwanese cabinet members and is threatening “criminal liability” for Taiwan’s democratically elected leaders. The Chinese ambassador to France said China would subject the Taiwanese people to “reeducation” after reunification, evoking the reeducation centers used in the ongoing genocide of Uyghur Muslims in China’s Xinjiang province.
在外交上，北京已经制裁了几名台湾内阁成员，并威胁要对台湾民选领导人承担“刑事责任”。 中国驻法国大使表示，中国将在统一后对台湾人民进行“再教育”，这让人联想到中国新疆维吾尔族穆斯林正在进行的种族灭绝中使用的再教育中心。

“Beijing’s scorched-earth diplomacy suggests it is leaving itself fewer and fewer alternatives to war,” former deputy national security adviser Matthew Pottinger, who now chairs the China program at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told me. “Xi Jinping has systematically shut down any credible path to diplomacy. They are slashing and burning the pathways to a peaceful resolution.”
“北京的焦土外交表明，它给自己留下的战争替代方案越来越少，”前国家安全副顾问马修·波廷格 (Matthew Pottinger) 告诉我，他现在是保卫民主国家基金会 (Foundation for the Defense of Democracies) 中国项目的主席。 “希望系统性地关闭了任何可靠的外交途径。 他们正在削减和烧毁和平解决的途径。”

In a news conference Wednesday, Pelosi said China is using the delegation’s visit as a pretext to continue its steadily increasing aggression. “What we saw with China is that they were trying to establish sort of a new normal. And we just can’t let that happen,” Pelosi said.
佩洛西在周三的新闻发布会上说，中国正在以代表团的访问为借口，继续其稳步增加的侵略。 “我们在中国看到的是，他们正试图建立一种新常态。 我们不能让这种情况发生，”佩洛西说。

Chinese officials continue to insist that Beijing is committed to “peaceful reunification,” and they blame Taiwan for pushing away that possibility. Beijing maintains that China’s actions are responses to U.S. and Taiwanese provocations. This narrative is often picked up by some elite figures in the United States, who also blame the tensions on America.
中国官员继续坚称北京致力于“和平统一”，他们指责台湾推翻了这种可能性。 北京坚称，中国的行动是对美国和台湾挑衅的回应。 这种说法经常被美国的一些精英人物所接受，他们也将紧张局势归咎于美国。

Reunification without war has been the Chinese Communist Party’s professed preference for decades. But practically, the level of pain and suffering Beijing is imposing on Taiwan’s leaders and its people is likely to destroy whatever good will remained there for supporting such an approach.
几十年来，没有战争的统一，一直是中国共产党自称的偏好。 但实际上，北京针对台湾领导人和台湾人民的刁难很可能会把那些在台湾对和平统一仅存的善念都摧毁掉。

Some experts warn that the Chinese government might feel compelled to use force in Taiwan because they perceive that the United States and Taiwan are moving toward independence, even if leaders in Washington and Taipei don’t see it that way. Beijing doesn’t want a military confrontation right now, in part because it is not yet prepared.
一些专家警告说，中国政府可能会觉得不得不在台湾使用武力，因为他们认为美国和台湾正在走向独立，即使华盛顿和台北的领导人不这么看。 北京现在不希望发生军事对抗，部分原因是它还没有做好准备。

“I believe that they think that if they just let this continue, that there will come a time in the very near future that they will have to use force,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund. “And I believe that, for lots of reasons, they’re not ready to do so.”
“我相信他们认为，如果他们让这种情况继续下去，那么在不久的将来他们将不得不使用武力，”德国马歇尔基金会亚洲项目主任邦妮·S·格拉泽说。 . “而且我相信，出于很多原因，他们还没有准备好这样做。”

Although Beijing appears to be speeding up its preparations for an attack on Taiwan, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl testified this week that the Pentagon doesn’t believe China will invade Taiwan within the next two years. Other senior U.S. military leaders have speculated that China’s preparations for an attack won’t be complete until 2026 or 2027.
尽管北京似乎正在加快准备袭击台湾，但国防部副部长科林卡尔本周作证说，五角大楼不相信中国会在未来两年内入侵台湾。 美国其他高级军事领导人推测，中国对袭击的准备要到 2026 年或 2027 年才能完成。

The Biden administration will certainly keep trying to build channels with Beijing to mitigate the risk of conflict and encourage cooperation, as it should. But if China’s leaders think ending climate change cooperation is a punishment to the United States, that means they never bought into the idea it was a shared interest in the first place.
拜登政府肯定会继续努力与北京建立渠道，以减轻冲突风险并鼓励合作，这是它应该做的。 但如果中国领导人认为结束气候变化合作是对美国的惩罚，那意味着他们从一开始就没有接受这是共同利益的想法。

Commentators who blame the rising tensions in Taiwan on the United States wrongly assume that if Washington backed down, China would cease its aggression. Xi’s actions in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and around the world show that China’s aggression is widespread and limited only by its capabilities.
将台湾紧张局势升级归咎于美国的评论员错误地认为，如果华盛顿让步，中国将停止侵略。 希望在新疆、西藏、香港和世界各地的行动表明，中国的侵略是广泛的，而且只是受其能力的限制。

China’s overreaction in Taiwan and its efforts to create a new, more dangerous status quo should be a wake-up call for the world. Time is running out to increase support for Taiwan such that China will conclude an invasion would not succeed. Short of a change of heart in Beijing, that’s the best and perhaps last remaining way to avoid outright conflict.
中国在台湾的过度反应及其创造新的、更危险的现状的努力应该给世界敲响警钟。 增加对台湾的支持以使中国断定入侵不会成功的时间已经不多了。 如果在北京没有改变主意，那是避免直接冲突的最好办法，也许是最后的办法。

标红字体均为楼主更改，与原文作者无关。

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